COVID-19 transmission increasing; future hospital admissions and occupancy uncertain > Washington State Department of Health


For speedy launch: September 23, 2021   (21-206)

Media get in touch with: DOH Communications

Community inquiries: State COVID-19 Aid Hotline, 1-800-525-0127

COVID-19 transmission raising long term healthcare facility admissions and occupancy unsure

‘Current surge of sufferers too much to handle our hospitals’ states state’s top epidemiologist

OLYMPIA – The newest COVID-19 modeling and surveillance situation report from the Washington Condition Department of Wellbeing (DOH) exhibits the vast majority of counties now have scenario prices previously mentioned 500 for each 100,000. Washington is likely to see ongoing substantial levels of circumstances and healthcare facility admissions, with growing deaths.

Report results include things like:


  • COVID-19 prevalence is at a new significant. The current ideal estimate of prevalence is .94{77cee397d25497406907bc5f78f1cff64d8c0594b11a1d7f77fe1a342e6e8ad4}, or about 1 in each 106 Washingtonians. The former noted higher was .64{77cee397d25497406907bc5f78f1cff64d8c0594b11a1d7f77fe1a342e6e8ad4} in August 2021, or about 1 in every single 156 Washingtonians. About 39{77cee397d25497406907bc5f78f1cff64d8c0594b11a1d7f77fe1a342e6e8ad4} of the inhabitants remains susceptible to COVID-19 an infection.
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  • Transmission proceeds to raise, but at a slower charge. On Sep. 2, the finest estimate of the successful reproductive amount (Re, which tells us how numerous new persons every single COVID-19 circumstance will infect) was 1.14. On Aug. 6, this estimate was 1.49. A reproductive quantity above 1 means that scenarios will go on to increase. To see situations decrease, the reproductive range requires to remain effectively underneath 1. for a substantial quantity of time.
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  • COVID-19 fatalities are increasing. The seven-day rolling ordinary of fatalities has greater promptly, from 5-10 deaths for every working day in July to 27 for every day by the finish of August.
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  • Medical center admissions and occupancy for COVID-19 are nonetheless extremely superior. Soon after a peak of 190 each day admissions (seven-day rolling regular) at the stop of August, the currentaverage has declined only somewhat to 186. Both admissions and occupancy keep on being at quite high ranges. Whilst some recent declines are apparent as of September 18, existing occupancy stages even now considerably exceed all those observed for the duration of the past highs of winter 2020.
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  • Hospital projections point out significant levels of admissions and occupancy for COVID-19 are most likely to persist by means of the slide. The projections pose two eventualities centered on growing rates of transmission, one particular with a reduce or “modest” amount, and yet another with a higher or “moderate” charge. Under these scenarios, healthcare facility admissions by the close of December could minimize, or they could improve to among 141 and 240 admissions daily. The range of beds occupied by way of December could lessen, or they could boost to involving 1100 and 2000 beds for each working day.
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“What this tells us is that our personal selections and behaviors today are going to decide no matter whether or not our pals and people will have entire entry to wellness care in the in the vicinity of potential, for any medical will need, not just COVID,” mentioned Scott Lindquist, MD, MPH, condition epidemiologist for communicable disorders. “The recent surge of clients is overwhelming our hospitals. With college in session and flu period just about listed here, our best selection for finding as a result of the surge is to put on our masks and get vaccinated.”

Washington’s fee of immunity would be more than enough to manage clinic admissions and occupancy given a reduce or “modest” improve in transmission. Beneath increased or “moderate” transmission, on the other hand, the amount of immunity would not be enough, and clinic admission and occupancy would increase, especially among the believed 39{77cee397d25497406907bc5f78f1cff64d8c0594b11a1d7f77fe1a342e6e8ad4} of the inhabitants vulnerable to infection. Vaccinations continue to be really efficient at protecting from hospitalization. The ideal way to boost immunity and gradual down transmission are to get vaccinated and put on deal with coverings in indoor or crowded public sites.

Additional COVID-19 information can be identified on the DOH knowledge dashboard.

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